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Investors Lounge
lochaz-index
#5401 Posted : Tuesday, June 02, 2020 9:43:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,119
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have been waiting for the DOW (US DJIA) to fall massively. The riots in USA may likely be blamed for the rout


The way investors thought USA as safe haven fleeing and dumping emerging markets assets.

In advanced markets, the US of A is still king. The variety(depth), liquidity and transparency is unmatched not to mention that systemic risk is relatively low. The closest substitutes are the FTSE and DAX. The rest don't quite cut it. EMs have more ten bagger opportunities but you have to be extra cautious when it comes to risk management in mitigating against country risk. That said, I think the lockdowns have unleashed and/or exacerbated longterm structural problems for most AMs.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
slick
#5402 Posted : Tuesday, June 02, 2020 4:34:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have been waiting for the DOW (US DJIA) to fall massively. The riots in USA may likely be blamed for the rout


The way investors thought USA as safe haven fleeing and dumping emerging markets assets.

In advanced markets, the US of A is still king. The variety(depth), liquidity and transparency is unmatched not to mention that systemic risk is relatively low. The closest substitutes are the FTSE and DAX. The rest don't quite cut it. EMs have more ten bagger opportunities but you have to be extra cautious when it comes to risk management in mitigating against country risk. That said, I think the lockdowns have unleashed and/or exacerbated longterm structural problems for most AMs.


@lochaz-index Which EMs are you looking at?
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
lochaz-index
#5403 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 8:31:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,119
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have been waiting for the DOW (US DJIA) to fall massively. The riots in USA may likely be blamed for the rout


The way investors thought USA as safe haven fleeing and dumping emerging markets assets.

In advanced markets, the US of A is still king. The variety(depth), liquidity and transparency is unmatched not to mention that systemic risk is relatively low. The closest substitutes are the FTSE and DAX. The rest don't quite cut it. EMs have more ten bagger opportunities but you have to be extra cautious when it comes to risk management in mitigating against country risk. That said, I think the lockdowns have unleashed and/or exacerbated longterm structural problems for most AMs.


@lochaz-index Which EMs are you looking at?

There are several good ones but I like India the most. Growth has been slowing down for the last three-four years after their needless demonetization exercise and will probably bottom out this or next year after the lockdown fiasco. Initially, I thought it would survive a recession but that is now a remote possibility...best wait for the dust to settle. For China, since they are short on transparency and big on government meddling you can't tell whether you've unearthed/bought a gem or a dud, I prefer to deal with indices or their cross-listed stocks in LSE or NYSE.

NSE has been gutted for quality stocks in the ongoing multi-year bear run. There are no more than 10-15 investable stocks in the market after previous darlings and blue-chip stocks were brutally crushed. ARM went belly up, NMG and bamburi are really struggling with long-term sustainability issues. That said, NSE is working on modalities with other stock exchanges like Mauritius etc on how investors in KE can access their markets directly starting next year so that should ease the dire lack of options on that front.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
slick
#5404 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 2:12:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
lochaz-index wrote:
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have been waiting for the DOW (US DJIA) to fall massively. The riots in USA may likely be blamed for the rout


The way investors thought USA as safe haven fleeing and dumping emerging markets assets.

In advanced markets, the US of A is still king. The variety(depth), liquidity and transparency is unmatched not to mention that systemic risk is relatively low. The closest substitutes are the FTSE and DAX. The rest don't quite cut it. EMs have more ten bagger opportunities but you have to be extra cautious when it comes to risk management in mitigating against country risk. That said, I think the lockdowns have unleashed and/or exacerbated longterm structural problems for most AMs.


@lochaz-index Which EMs are you looking at?

There are several good ones but I like India the most. Growth has been slowing down for the last three-four years after their needless demonetization exercise and will probably bottom out this or next year after the lockdown fiasco. Initially, I thought it would survive a recession but that is now a remote possibility...best wait for the dust to settle. For China, since they are short on transparency and big on government meddling you can't tell whether you've unearthed/bought a gem or a dud, I prefer to deal with indices or their cross-listed stocks in LSE or NYSE.

NSE has been gutted for quality stocks in the ongoing multi-year bear run. There are no more than 10-15 investable stocks in the market after previous darlings and blue-chip stocks were brutally crushed. ARM went belly up, NMG and bamburi are really struggling with long-term sustainability issues. That said, NSE is working on modalities with other stock exchanges like Mauritius etc on how investors in KE can access their markets directly starting next year so that should ease the dire lack of options on that front.



@lochaz-index.Good stuff.I normally look at and trade stocks like Chinese companies like Alibaba,Baidu,JD on the NYSE where the can be accessed as American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Certificates.They tend to be volatile which is good for short term trades.I also check up on the broader iShares China Large-Cap ETF but never traded it.Though as you stated there are serious problems of transparency (China is opaque and particularly notorious for cooking books) with China and Trump has on several occasions threatened to delist Chinese companies from the NYSE as part of the trade tussle.Look at how the West is handling the Chinese telcom giant Huawei when Canada arrested Huawei's CFO at the instruction of the US.Also China is A MASSIVE LEVERAGED TICKING TIME DEBT BOMB.Some investors call China "Red Ponzi".The sheer scale of money printing by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to fund white elephants like ghost cities where upto 65 million apartments in these deserted cities are unoccupied plus many other dubious ventures is nuts.Its estimated China's debt to GDP is a crazy 300%.China is just a massive bubble waiting to burst and the damage will be horrendous.Ok,US on the aggregate is an even bigger bubble than China and its a shame that the world's two largest economies are also the world's most over leveraged and indebted nations.Also,if as Western nations start pulling out their manufacturing capacity from China due to Covid-19 and the trade war as they have threatened,China's status as the world's factory may decline but that's decades away.The big question for this 21st century is whether China will rise up and become the dominant power surpassing the USA or will the communist state implode under the weight of excessive debt and money printing and autocratic rule.Will the Communist Party continue holding on or be overthrown?Beijing already has the largest PPP GDP in the world surpassing the USA in this metric in 2014 but for nominal GDP the United States still comes on top but its estimated China may overtake the US in nominal GDP also by 2024 (something I doubt as Chinese overleveraged economy may burst before then)





Best way to trade EMs is by looking at the broader market ETFs like iShares China Large-Cap ETF,iShares MSCI India ETF or the broadest iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Picking individual stocks in these countries is notoriously difficult.If you have the stomach for it,Russia maybe a good EM investment option.Unlike the US,Europe,Japan and China that have debt to GDP ratios of over 100% (and for Japan and China its over 250%),Russia's debt to GDP is about 17-22% and Russian central bank is very disciplined and does not recklessely print money like other major powers but of course Russia's suffers from problems of being opaque,over-reliant on oil and gas exports whose prices can colllapse as it is currently,relatively autocratic rule from Putin and Western sanctions worsen the problem.Apart from commodity rich Russia,other commodity rich EMs like Brazil look interesting but corruption in Brazil is rampant.Commodity centric EMs have been suffering from strong USD and general massive decline of commodity prices in recent years but that may change in the near future.Argentina is a disaster of routinely hyper-inflating their currency every few years so a definite no no.Turkey's lira currency is also a mess.

Possibly long term EMs offer an opportunity as they have been so beaten down by massive inflows into US assets and US dollar and EM currencies are relatively weak to the USD but possibly in the future this may change.

Check out legendary investor Jim Rogers.He loves venturing into beaten down EMs like China,Russia,Eastern Europe (he even wants to sample Zimbabwe Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly) buying these markets when they are hated and hoping for multi-baggers in future.He has done this before.Though he is a multi-millionaire and has the patience to hold onto risky EMs for many years and can take losses ascribed from the risk investing in opaque states.

Also check out billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass.He is fanatically anti-Chinese and loudly exposes the ticking time autocratic debt bomb of China
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
lochaz-index
#5405 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2020 12:19:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,119
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have been waiting for the DOW (US DJIA) to fall massively. The riots in USA may likely be blamed for the rout


The way investors thought USA as safe haven fleeing and dumping emerging markets assets.

In advanced markets, the US of A is still king. The variety(depth), liquidity and transparency is unmatched not to mention that systemic risk is relatively low. The closest substitutes are the FTSE and DAX. The rest don't quite cut it. EMs have more ten bagger opportunities but you have to be extra cautious when it comes to risk management in mitigating against country risk. That said, I think the lockdowns have unleashed and/or exacerbated longterm structural problems for most AMs.


@lochaz-index Which EMs are you looking at?

There are several good ones but I like India the most. Growth has been slowing down for the last three-four years after their needless demonetization exercise and will probably bottom out this or next year after the lockdown fiasco. Initially, I thought it would survive a recession but that is now a remote possibility...best wait for the dust to settle. For China, since they are short on transparency and big on government meddling you can't tell whether you've unearthed/bought a gem or a dud, I prefer to deal with indices or their cross-listed stocks in LSE or NYSE.

NSE has been gutted for quality stocks in the ongoing multi-year bear run. There are no more than 10-15 investable stocks in the market after previous darlings and blue-chip stocks were brutally crushed. ARM went belly up, NMG and bamburi are really struggling with long-term sustainability issues. That said, NSE is working on modalities with other stock exchanges like Mauritius etc on how investors in KE can access their markets directly starting next year so that should ease the dire lack of options on that front.



@lochaz-index.Good stuff.I normally look at and trade stocks like Chinese companies like Alibaba,Baidu,JD on the NYSE where the can be accessed as American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Certificates.They tend to be volatile which is good for short term trades.I also check up on the broader iShares China Large-Cap ETF but never traded it.Though as you stated there are serious problems of transparency (China is opaque and particularly notorious for cooking books) with China and Trump has on several occasions threatened to delist Chinese companies from the NYSE as part of the trade tussle.Look at how the West is handling the Chinese telcom giant Huawei when Canada arrested Huawei's CFO at the instruction of the US.Also China is A MASSIVE LEVERAGED TICKING TIME DEBT BOMB.Some investors call China "Red Ponzi".The sheer scale of money printing by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to fund white elephants like ghost cities where upto 65 million apartments in these deserted cities are unoccupied plus many other dubious ventures is nuts.Its estimated China's debt to GDP is a crazy 300%.China is just a massive bubble waiting to burst and the damage will be horrendous.Ok,US on the aggregate is an even bigger bubble than China and its a shame that the world's two largest economies are also the world's most over leveraged and indebted nations.Also,if as Western nations start pulling out their manufacturing capacity from China due to Covid-19 and the trade war as they have threatened,China's status as the world's factory may decline but that's decades away.The big question for this 21st century is whether China will rise up and become the dominant power surpassing the USA or will the communist state implode under the weight of excessive debt and money printing and autocratic rule.Will the Communist Party continue holding on or be overthrown?Beijing already has the largest PPP GDP in the world surpassing the USA in this metric in 2014 but for nominal GDP the United States still comes on top but its estimated China may overtake the US in nominal GDP also by 2024 (something I doubt as Chinese overleveraged economy may burst before then)





Best way to trade EMs is by looking at the broader market ETFs like iShares China Large-Cap ETF,iShares MSCI India ETF or the broadest iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Picking individual stocks in these countries is notoriously difficult.If you have the stomach for it,Russia maybe a good EM investment option.Unlike the US,Europe,Japan and China that have debt to GDP ratios of over 100% (and for Japan and China its over 250%),Russia's debt to GDP is about 17-22% and Russian central bank is very disciplined and does not recklessely print money like other major powers but of course Russia's suffers from problems of being opaque,over-reliant on oil and gas exports whose prices can colllapse as it is currently,relatively autocratic rule from Putin and Western sanctions worsen the problem.Apart from commodity rich Russia,other commodity rich EMs like Brazil look interesting but corruption in Brazil is rampant.Commodity centric EMs have been suffering from strong USD and general massive decline of commodity prices in recent years but that may change in the near future.Argentina is a disaster of routinely hyper-inflating their currency every few years so a definite no no.Turkey's lira currency is also a mess.

Possibly long term EMs offer an opportunity as they have been so beaten down by massive inflows into US assets and US dollar and EM currencies are relatively weak to the USD but possibly in the future this may change.

Check out legendary investor Jim Rogers.He loves venturing into beaten down EMs like China,Russia,Eastern Europe (he even wants to sample Zimbabwe Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly) buying these markets when they are hated and hoping for multi-baggers in future.He has done this before.Though he is a multi-millionaire and has the patience to hold onto risky EMs for many years and can take losses ascribed from the risk investing in opaque states.

Also check out billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass.He is fanatically anti-Chinese and loudly exposes the ticking time autocratic debt bomb of China

I'm a fan of Kyle Bass though he goes overboard in his distaste for China to the extent that he lost his shirt a few years ago on a gamble for a yuan devaluation that put him in a boxing booth with the PBoC. Individual stocks are hard to pick in opaque markets hence the need to hedge with indices/ETFs for general macro trends and sector risk. On a comparative analysis Russia along with South Africa are the worst of the BRICS countries due to structural flaws in the economy. However, SAs problems are easier to solve compared to Russia which clings on fossil fuels for survival, has demographic issues (emigration/brain drain and an ageing population) in addition to an autocratic rule backed by oligarchs. Currencies/fx price these developments (capital flows, balance of payments, current account deficits/surplus, export-import trade balance etc) better than equity markets...collapse of both the ruble and the rand compared to their BRICS counterparts is testament to those underlying issues.

The money printing issues across the globe do not amount to much in a deleveraging cycle. Capital destruction that occurs in a deflation far outstrips any QE/stimulus programs are put in place to counter it and should any country go for helicopter money, the odds are they would find themselves in a hyperinflation where the damage done is again too big to for the exercise to be of any constructive use in main Street.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
slick
#5406 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2020 3:43:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
lochaz-index wrote:
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have been waiting for the DOW (US DJIA) to fall massively. The riots in USA may likely be blamed for the rout


The way investors thought USA as safe haven fleeing and dumping emerging markets assets.

In advanced markets, the US of A is still king. The variety(depth), liquidity and transparency is unmatched not to mention that systemic risk is relatively low. The closest substitutes are the FTSE and DAX. The rest don't quite cut it. EMs have more ten bagger opportunities but you have to be extra cautious when it comes to risk management in mitigating against country risk. That said, I think the lockdowns have unleashed and/or exacerbated longterm structural problems for most AMs.


@lochaz-index Which EMs are you looking at?

There are several good ones but I like India the most. Growth has been slowing down for the last three-four years after their needless demonetization exercise and will probably bottom out this or next year after the lockdown fiasco. Initially, I thought it would survive a recession but that is now a remote possibility...best wait for the dust to settle. For China, since they are short on transparency and big on government meddling you can't tell whether you've unearthed/bought a gem or a dud, I prefer to deal with indices or their cross-listed stocks in LSE or NYSE.

NSE has been gutted for quality stocks in the ongoing multi-year bear run. There are no more than 10-15 investable stocks in the market after previous darlings and blue-chip stocks were brutally crushed. ARM went belly up, NMG and bamburi are really struggling with long-term sustainability issues. That said, NSE is working on modalities with other stock exchanges like Mauritius etc on how investors in KE can access their markets directly starting next year so that should ease the dire lack of options on that front.



@lochaz-index.Good stuff.I normally look at and trade stocks like Chinese companies like Alibaba,Baidu,JD on the NYSE where the can be accessed as American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Certificates.They tend to be volatile which is good for short term trades.I also check up on the broader iShares China Large-Cap ETF but never traded it.Though as you stated there are serious problems of transparency (China is opaque and particularly notorious for cooking books) with China and Trump has on several occasions threatened to delist Chinese companies from the NYSE as part of the trade tussle.Look at how the West is handling the Chinese telcom giant Huawei when Canada arrested Huawei's CFO at the instruction of the US.Also China is A MASSIVE LEVERAGED TICKING TIME DEBT BOMB.Some investors call China "Red Ponzi".The sheer scale of money printing by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to fund white elephants like ghost cities where upto 65 million apartments in these deserted cities are unoccupied plus many other dubious ventures is nuts.Its estimated China's debt to GDP is a crazy 300%.China is just a massive bubble waiting to burst and the damage will be horrendous.Ok,US on the aggregate is an even bigger bubble than China and its a shame that the world's two largest economies are also the world's most over leveraged and indebted nations.Also,if as Western nations start pulling out their manufacturing capacity from China due to Covid-19 and the trade war as they have threatened,China's status as the world's factory may decline but that's decades away.The big question for this 21st century is whether China will rise up and become the dominant power surpassing the USA or will the communist state implode under the weight of excessive debt and money printing and autocratic rule.Will the Communist Party continue holding on or be overthrown?Beijing already has the largest PPP GDP in the world surpassing the USA in this metric in 2014 but for nominal GDP the United States still comes on top but its estimated China may overtake the US in nominal GDP also by 2024 (something I doubt as Chinese overleveraged economy may burst before then)





Best way to trade EMs is by looking at the broader market ETFs like iShares China Large-Cap ETF,iShares MSCI India ETF or the broadest iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Picking individual stocks in these countries is notoriously difficult.If you have the stomach for it,Russia maybe a good EM investment option.Unlike the US,Europe,Japan and China that have debt to GDP ratios of over 100% (and for Japan and China its over 250%),Russia's debt to GDP is about 17-22% and Russian central bank is very disciplined and does not recklessely print money like other major powers but of course Russia's suffers from problems of being opaque,over-reliant on oil and gas exports whose prices can colllapse as it is currently,relatively autocratic rule from Putin and Western sanctions worsen the problem.Apart from commodity rich Russia,other commodity rich EMs like Brazil look interesting but corruption in Brazil is rampant.Commodity centric EMs have been suffering from strong USD and general massive decline of commodity prices in recent years but that may change in the near future.Argentina is a disaster of routinely hyper-inflating their currency every few years so a definite no no.Turkey's lira currency is also a mess.

Possibly long term EMs offer an opportunity as they have been so beaten down by massive inflows into US assets and US dollar and EM currencies are relatively weak to the USD but possibly in the future this may change.

Check out legendary investor Jim Rogers.He loves venturing into beaten down EMs like China,Russia,Eastern Europe (he even wants to sample Zimbabwe Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly) buying these markets when they are hated and hoping for multi-baggers in future.He has done this before.Though he is a multi-millionaire and has the patience to hold onto risky EMs for many years and can take losses ascribed from the risk investing in opaque states.

Also check out billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass.He is fanatically anti-Chinese and loudly exposes the ticking time autocratic debt bomb of China

I'm a fan of Kyle Bass though he goes overboard in his distaste for China to the extent that he lost his shirt a few years ago on a gamble for a yuan devaluation that put him in a boxing booth with the PBoC. Individual stocks are hard to pick in opaque markets hence the need to hedge with indices/ETFs for general macro trends and sector risk. On a comparative analysis Russia along with South Africa are the worst of the BRICS countries due to structural flaws in the economy. However, SAs problems are easier to solve compared to Russia which clings on fossil fuels for survival, has demographic issues (emigration/brain drain and an ageing population) in addition to an autocratic rule backed by oligarchs. Currencies/fx price these developments (capital flows, balance of payments, current account deficits/surplus, export-import trade balance etc) better than equity markets...collapse of both the ruble and the rand compared to their BRICS counterparts is testament to those underlying issues.

The money printing issues across the globe do not amount to much in a deleveraging cycle. Capital destruction that occurs in a deflation far outstrips any QE/stimulus programs are put in place to counter it and should any country go for helicopter money, the odds are they would find themselves in a hyperinflation where the damage done is again too big to for the exercise to be of any constructive use in main Street.



Moreover,China does not a fully free floating and fully convertible currency.The PBoC keeps a tight check on the yuan's value having a loose peg to the USD at 7 Renminbi to a dollar.Washington has always accused Beijing of cheapening its currency to cheapen its exports and at one point the Trump US Treasury labelled China a currency manipulator (like as if no government and central bank manipulates its currency).China's shock and unexpected yuan devaluation of its currency in late 2015 and early 2016 caused jitters in global markets and tanking US equities in that period.Also China has strict capital controls.For cash transactions up to the limit of $10,000 US, you will need a special permit that provides you with permission to bring in or take out the money from the country. A bank issues this permit.If your transaction involves more than $10,000 US, you will need to obtain a special warrant from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.This forces citizens to move their wealth out of China via other avenues like cryptos and purchase bubble assets like Canadian or Australian real estate.Considering China's tight control of its currency,capital outflows and not having an open account,its practically impossible for the yuan to displace the USD as the world's reserve currency.King Dollar despite the ludicrous multi-trillion money printing schemes by the Fed will continue its reign in the foreseeable future.

Yes true,mass money printing by first world central banks are there to offset the massive capital destruction of the deleveraging cycle.Trillions of currency have been lost in the deflationary cycle that central banks are desperately trying to plug in by printing their trillions but the catch is the newly printed trillions also result in trillions of new debt being created.In the current debt based fiat monetary system money is created from debt and almost all the money the Fed has created is debt owed back to them.Fed is buying US treasuries and corporate bonds and is expected to be paid back with interest.For treasuries,the US government will pay back the Fed from taxpayer remittances so the populace is on hook to repay these Fed loans.Trillions have already been added onto the US national debt which the current and future generations have to cough up via taxation


Also,the current deleveraging is from a mega bubble and the Fed is just reinflating the bubble afresh with new a debt binge.The deleveraging from bubble excesses should be allowed to naturally play out.Its painful but its akin to a drug addict being weaned off heroin.The US economy and financial markets should be weaned off monetary heroin of Fed cheap money yet the Fed is just pumping new currency dope and inevitably the dose will be lethal.So the money printing has long term damage of massive unpayable debt and inflation plus loss of purchasing power of the USD.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
mnandii
#5407 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2020 8:00:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147


Shame on you Woiye! People are praising this ENDING RALLY in the DOW!? Next week all these gains will be erased. That is a fifth of a fifth of a fifth wave of [2]. The reversal DOWN will be epic
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
slick
#5408 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2020 11:18:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:


A major turn DOWN in DOW JONES (DJIA) likely very soon once the index rises to about 26,000 level.


Crazy stuff.S&P 500 punched back above 3000 yesterday as optimism over lockdown relaxations,possible Covid-19 vaccine and by far the biggest factor the Fed money printing pump job working its magic.NASDAQ almost at its all time highs and talk of S&P 500 and the Dow recapturing all time highs is rampant.Its fairtly obvious that the NASDAQ will hit all time highs soon.






Well as I expected the NASDAQ has hit new all time highs today.Chances are high that the other broader indices ie S&P 500 and Dow Jones may join the party.Stocks rallied over the euphoria of US creating record 2.5 million jobs in May up from the disaster record 20.5 million jobs lost.Well as the lockdowns were getting eased it was obvious that some would return to work and thus the record job numbers.



As the Nairobi bourse is languishing at its March lows,US stocks rallying to all time highs.Expect the pump job to continue for the short term though market is grossly overextended and a correction maybe imminent.Long term the market may drop precipitously as possible Covid-19 second wave plus mass bankruptcies sweep the United States.

I have kept saying this market will be going higher for the last few weeks due to the Fed pump and its been easy money going long especially the tech stocks.Riding this fake Fed pump bubble in the last few weeks has been AWESOME Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#5409 Posted : Saturday, June 06, 2020 7:35:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:


A major turn DOWN in DOW JONES (DJIA) likely very soon once the index rises to about 26,000 level.


Crazy stuff.S&P 500 punched back above 3000 yesterday as optimism over lockdown relaxations,possible Covid-19 vaccine and by far the biggest factor the Fed money printing pump job working its magic.NASDAQ almost at its all time highs and talk of S&P 500 and the Dow recapturing all time highs is rampant.Its fairtly obvious that the NASDAQ will hit all time highs soon.






Well as I expected the NASDAQ has hit new all time highs today.Chances are high that the other broader indices ie S&P 500 and Dow Jones may join the party.Stocks rallied over the euphoria of US creating record 2.5 million jobs in May up from the disaster record 20.5 million jobs lost.Well as the lockdowns were getting eased it was obvious that some would return to work and thus the record job numbers.



As the Nairobi bourse is languishing at its March lows,US stocks rallying to all time highs.Expect the pump job to continue for the short term though market is grossly overextended and a correction maybe imminent.Long term the market may drop precipitously as possible Covid-19 second wave plus mass bankruptcies sweep the United States.

I have kept saying this market will be going higher for the last few weeks due to the Fed pump and its been easy money going long especially the tech stocks.Riding this fake Fed pump bubble in the last few weeks has been AWESOME Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



S&P 500 has its biggest 50 day rally in history appreciating by 37.7%.Never underestimate and fight the Fed money printing pump job.In the very long term the Fed will lose but right now the Fed owns the market and if you cant beat the Fed,join it and ride the fake bubble pump



Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
mnandii
#5410 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 11:13:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:


A major turn DOWN in DOW JONES (DJIA) likely very soon once the index rises to about 26,000 level.


Crazy stuff.S&P 500 punched back above 3000 yesterday as optimism over lockdown relaxations,possible Covid-19 vaccine and by far the biggest factor the Fed money printing pump job working its magic.NASDAQ almost at its all time highs and talk of S&P 500 and the Dow recapturing all time highs is rampant.Its fairtly obvious that the NASDAQ will hit all time highs soon.






Well as I expected the NASDAQ has hit new all time highs today.Chances are high that the other broader indices ie S&P 500 and Dow Jones may join the party.Stocks rallied over the euphoria of US creating record 2.5 million jobs in May up from the disaster record 20.5 million jobs lost.Well as the lockdowns were getting eased it was obvious that some would return to work and thus the record job numbers.



As the Nairobi bourse is languishing at its March lows,US stocks rallying to all time highs.Expect the pump job to continue for the short term though market is grossly overextended and a correction maybe imminent.Long term the market may drop precipitously as possible Covid-19 second wave plus mass bankruptcies sweep the United States.

I have kept saying this market will be going higher for the last few weeks due to the Fed pump and its been easy money going long especially the tech stocks.Riding this fake Fed pump bubble in the last few weeks has been AWESOME Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



S&P 500 has its biggest 50 day rally in history appreciating by 37.7%.Never underestimate and fight the Fed money printing pump job.In the very long term the Fed will lose but right now the Fed owns the market and if you cant beat the Fed,join it and ride the fake bubble pump





The rally, as expected of a second wave rally, is based on hope and will soon be fully retraced.

Remember I forecasted the rally? See my previous posts where I called for DOW to rise to 26,000. The FED is not in control of the market.
The hopes that are fuelling the market are vaporising quite fast.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5411 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 11:19:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147
mnandii wrote:


DJIA. An alternate wave count. The DJIA could stage another rally in this alternative labelling for wave [2]. Targets are 25,226; 26,143 or around 27,000. I remain bearish.


This is the post that called the rally way before people started rationalizing that a vaccine or the FED would make the market to rally. It is quite interesting that no other person(except Elliotticians) called the rally prior to the market rallying. As always most people who claim to forecast the market wait for the market to make a move then in the middle of the move they then claim omnipotence, they claim insight! What !@#$?
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5412 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 11:23:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147
The rally was forecast on May 14 when the DOW was still at 23,000.

link to post
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5413 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 11:25:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147
mnandii wrote:
The rally was forecast on May 14 when the DOW was still at 23,000.

link to post


Remember also that using Elliott Waves we forecast the low in March and called the rally then. That was also another time when everybody else who does not practice Elliott Waves was fully bearish. That post exists in this thread.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#5414 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 11:30:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
wukan
#5415 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 12:24:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,408
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is doing quite badly on the poll numbers. It seems his handling of covid and the Floyd protests didn't go well with voters. Social mood has changed in America. S***hole countries have seen America was swimming naked. Some things can't be unseen
Angelica _ann
#5416 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2020 12:38:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,596
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
slick
#5417 Posted : Wednesday, June 10, 2020 8:57:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
mnandii wrote:
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:


A major turn DOWN in DOW JONES (DJIA) likely very soon once the index rises to about 26,000 level.


Crazy stuff.S&P 500 punched back above 3000 yesterday as optimism over lockdown relaxations,possible Covid-19 vaccine and by far the biggest factor the Fed money printing pump job working its magic.NASDAQ almost at its all time highs and talk of S&P 500 and the Dow recapturing all time highs is rampant.Its fairtly obvious that the NASDAQ will hit all time highs soon.






Well as I expected the NASDAQ has hit new all time highs today.Chances are high that the other broader indices ie S&P 500 and Dow Jones may join the party.Stocks rallied over the euphoria of US creating record 2.5 million jobs in May up from the disaster record 20.5 million jobs lost.Well as the lockdowns were getting eased it was obvious that some would return to work and thus the record job numbers.



As the Nairobi bourse is languishing at its March lows,US stocks rallying to all time highs.Expect the pump job to continue for the short term though market is grossly overextended and a correction maybe imminent.Long term the market may drop precipitously as possible Covid-19 second wave plus mass bankruptcies sweep the United States.

I have kept saying this market will be going higher for the last few weeks due to the Fed pump and its been easy money going long especially the tech stocks.Riding this fake Fed pump bubble in the last few weeks has been AWESOME Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



S&P 500 has its biggest 50 day rally in history appreciating by 37.7%.Never underestimate and fight the Fed money printing pump job.In the very long term the Fed will lose but right now the Fed owns the market and if you cant beat the Fed,join it and ride the fake bubble pump





The rally, as expected of a second wave rally, is based on hope and will soon be fully retraced.

Remember I forecasted the rally? See my previous posts where I called for DOW to rise to 26,000. The FED is not in control of the market.
The hopes that are fuelling the market are vaporising quite fast.


@mnandii.Yes I agree with you that a major downturn in the market is inevitable.This massive meltup is grossly over-extended and extremely frothy.This rally is fake from Fed money printing but I take advantage of all that massive Fed money pump and go long even though I know its fake and a joke.Markets are mis-pricing the risk of a second covid-19 wave and the bankruptcy crisis thats about to hit especially small businesses that didnt benefit from the Fed money printing bailouts.I definitely cannot know when the 2 risks mentioned above will hit the market.One shouldnt forget that the market mispriced the covid-19 risk in late January and early February.Once the Wuhan lockdown was effected on January 23rd,the market still kept going up as Fed repo money printing kept the game going.US investors assumed that Covid-19 is largely a Chinese problem and US had just a handful of cases and the assumption is that it was an over-glorified flu was rampant.I was generally but cautiously long the market until when reality of Covid-19 finally hit the market on February 19th and the sharp downturn and fastest collapse of the S&P 500 in history manifested from late February to late March when I went massively short.

As I said I agree with the downturn that you are predicting maybe coming but the timing of it is impossible.Its very feasible that the Dow and S&P 500 may also hit all time highs now that the NASDAQ did and its also possible the market may crash again in the next few days.Nobody has the exact prognosis of the market and either of these scenarios could happen.Thus for me I review the market on a day to day basis and trade each day on its own.I can be long and short the same stock on the same day not caring about overall market direction and just scalp short term trends.Once that sharp downturn manifests I will be ready to short the market once more.

Well,I guess I will continue to respectfully disagree with you on the matter of Fed money printing manipulation.You have stuck to your guns that Fed doesnt control the market and markets arent manipulated and I know for a fact that markets are manipulated especially by central banks and I keep posting links and screenshots from major news outlets like CNBC,Bloomberg,Reuters,major Wall Street Banks like Bank of America,JP Morgan,BMO,billionaires like Ray Dalio etc stating that Fed money pump is creating fake manipulated markets and these major Wall Street players know their markets better than you or I.A few of those screenshots are as below










I guess we wont ever change each others opinion on this matter.I respect that fact that you think markets arent manipulated especially by central banks even though I think you are wrong on this.We are all entitled to our opinions.If your thesis plus your Elliot wave analysis is making money for you in the market then good for you.I am also making tons of money from a different analytical process.There is no best strategy to make profits and each to his own perspective
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#5418 Posted : Wednesday, June 10, 2020 9:37:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:


A major turn DOWN in DOW JONES (DJIA) likely very soon once the index rises to about 26,000 level.


Crazy stuff.S&P 500 punched back above 3000 yesterday as optimism over lockdown relaxations,possible Covid-19 vaccine and by far the biggest factor the Fed money printing pump job working its magic.NASDAQ almost at its all time highs and talk of S&P 500 and the Dow recapturing all time highs is rampant.Its fairtly obvious that the NASDAQ will hit all time highs soon.






Well as I expected the NASDAQ has hit new all time highs today.Chances are high that the other broader indices ie S&P 500 and Dow Jones may join the party.Stocks rallied over the euphoria of US creating record 2.5 million jobs in May up from the disaster record 20.5 million jobs lost.Well as the lockdowns were getting eased it was obvious that some would return to work and thus the record job numbers.



As the Nairobi bourse is languishing at its March lows,US stocks rallying to all time highs.Expect the pump job to continue for the short term though market is grossly overextended and a correction maybe imminent.Long term the market may drop precipitously as possible Covid-19 second wave plus mass bankruptcies sweep the United States.

I have kept saying this market will be going higher for the last few weeks due to the Fed pump and its been easy money going long especially the tech stocks.Riding this fake Fed pump bubble in the last few weeks has been AWESOME Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



S&P 500 has its biggest 50 day rally in history appreciating by 37.7%.Never underestimate and fight the Fed money printing pump job.In the very long term the Fed will lose but right now the Fed owns the market and if you cant beat the Fed,join it and ride the fake bubble pump





The rally, as expected of a second wave rally, is based on hope and will soon be fully retraced.

Remember I forecasted the rally? See my previous posts where I called for DOW to rise to 26,000. The FED is not in control of the market.
The hopes that are fuelling the market are vaporising quite fast.


@mnandii.Yes I agree with you that a major downturn in the market is inevitable.This massive meltup is grossly over-extended and extremely frothy.This rally is fake from Fed money printing but I take advantage of all that massive Fed money pump and go long even though I know its fake and a joke.Markets are mis-pricing the risk of a second covid-19 wave and the bankruptcy crisis thats about to hit especially small businesses that didnt benefit from the Fed money printing bailouts.I definitely cannot know when the 2 risks mentioned above will hit the market.One shouldnt forget that the market mispriced the covid-19 risk in late January and early February.Once the Wuhan lockdown was effected on January 23rd,the market still kept going up as Fed repo money printing kept the game going.US investors assumed that Covid-19 is largely a Chinese problem and US had just a handful of cases and the assumption is that it was an over-glorified flu was rampant.I was generally but cautiously long the market until when reality of Covid-19 finally hit the market on February 19th and the sharp downturn and fastest collapse of the S&P 500 in history manifested from late February to late March when I went massively short.

As I said I agree with the downturn that you are predicting maybe coming but the timing of it is impossible.Its very feasible that the Dow and S&P 500 may also hit all time highs now that the NASDAQ did and its also possible the market may crash again in the next few days.Nobody has the exact prognosis of the market and either of these scenarios could happen.Thus for me I review the market on a day to day basis and trade each day on its own.I can be long and short the same stock on the same day not caring about overall market direction and just scalp short term trends.Once that sharp downturn manifests I will be ready to short the market once more.

Well,I guess I will continue to respectfully disagree with you on the matter of Fed money printing manipulation.You have stuck to your guns that Fed doesnt control the market and markets arent manipulated and I know for a fact that markets are manipulated especially by central banks and I keep posting links and screenshots from major news outlets like CNBC,Bloomberg,Reuters,major Wall Street Banks like Bank of America,JP Morgan,BMO,billionaires like Ray Dalio etc stating that Fed money pump is creating fake manipulated markets and these major Wall Street players know their markets better than you or I.A few of those screenshots are as below










I guess we wont ever change each others opinion on this matter.I respect that fact that you think markets arent manipulated especially by central banks even though I think you are wrong on this.We are all entitled to our opinions.If your thesis plus your Elliot wave analysis is making money for you in the market then good for you.I am also making tons of money from a different analytical process.There is no best strategy to make profits and each to his own perspective


Its also possible that the Dow may not hit 20,000 and below in the next reversal.The Fed is now highly alert to any market disruptions and has stated numerous times its ready to provide unlimited QE money printing to support markets and even when the bankruptcy and second covid-19 wave hits,markets may retrace but not to the disastrous speed and levels of March 2020 as now the Fed will act extremely fast and reflate the asset bubbles.Time and again I have underestimated the Fed money pump.I knew the Fed would pump trillions and push the market from its March lows but never did I think we would be hitting all highs.Just continues to show the Fed's massive firepower.For as long as the USD remains the reserve currency and is perceived to be stronger than other major currencies like Euro,Yen,Pound,Yuan where these other central banks are printing even more relative to GDP than the Fed,the US central bank can keep printing even more trillions with no immediate consequences to the USD.Well it remains to be seen how this will play out in the next few months.Dow may punch below 20,000 once again but also the Fed may save the market again and hit all time highs.I dont know which outcome will result and frankly dont care and will just trade the market conditions that I see on a day to day basis

Invevitably,money printing has diminishing returns.At some point in the future,the market will be aghast over the sheer scale of fiat currency being created and massive inflation,devaluation and large loss of purchasing power reality will sink in and there will me a mad rush out of these fiat currencies.Fed money printing will become meaningless.They can inflate the Dow to 50,000 but these nominal gains in the market will be viewed as worthless as there will be no real gains less massive inflation.This inflection point where fiat money printing to pump up assets is useless will inevitably be reached perhaps a few years from now.Nobody can predict when this inflection point will be attained but it obvious we shall get there and its at this point where central banks will have no control over markets.This is the final end game of the sovereign debt and fiat currency crisis and collapse.All fiat currencies from Ancient Greece to Weinmar Germany 1923 hyperinflation hit this disastrous outcome.All fiat currencies collapse and revert to their intrinsic value of zero and the current debt based fiat monetary system will be no different
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
kenyan2019
#5419 Posted : Wednesday, June 10, 2020 3:07:58 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2018
Posts: 51
Genghis clients to access online financial assets https://www.businessdail...3608-lm8y2hz/index.html via @BD_Africa


The firm's portfolio will now include online currencies, commodities, global indices, precious metals and oils.

The deal will also see Genghis offer stocks including tech stocks like Zoom, global banking stocks, pharmaceuticals, and biotech companies such as Moderna and Gilead Sciences.
mnandii
#5420 Posted : Thursday, June 11, 2020 8:18:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,147
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!


Trump is proved wrong. The venerable FED is proved wrong. Fundamentals as popularly practised is proved wrong.

Only Elliott Waves can anticipate these turns.smile



Expect further downside to the DJIA.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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