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MTN Uganda IPO..Whats cutting over there??
obiero
#21 Posted : Saturday, December 04, 2021 10:07:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,022
Location: nairobi
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#22 Posted : Sunday, December 05, 2021 10:13:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,022
Location: nairobi
750 bonus shares.. tomorrow the rubber meets the road
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
kmucheke
#23 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 1:01:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 286
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 9:46:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,667
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?


Top Ten Shareholders:

Following the Offer and immediately prior to the Listing, the top ten shareholders of MTN Uganda are as follows:


Shareholder Number of Issued Shares Percentage Shareholding
MTN International (Mauritius) Limited 18 594 809 664 83.05%
National Social Security Fund 1 980 000 000 8.84%
Charles Mbire 892 230 775 3.99%
National Social Security Fund – Sanlam 58 590 000 0.26%
Bank of Uganda Defined Benefits Scheme – Sanlam 42 000 000 0.19%
National Social Security Fund (Kenya) – Sanlam 39 180 225 0.18%
Duet Africa Opportunities Master Fund IC 30 000 000 0.13%
EFG Hermes Oman LLC 26 855 500 0.12%
First Rand Bank Limited 22 000 000 0.10%
Uganda Revenue Authority Staff Benefit Scheme – Sanlam 18 900 000 0.08%
Other shareholders 684 478 075 3.06%
Total 22 389 044 239 100%



Lack of confidence in the company.
50% of shares on offer bought by NSSF UG. MTN will be 50% of the USE's market cap. Perhaps it was too much for Ugandans to chew on given the size and past poorly performing issues/firms. At one time, not long after the IPO, Safaricom shares were trading at 50% of the IPO price!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 9:49:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,667
Location: Nairobi
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kmucheke
#26 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 11:03:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 286
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.


Stanbic Ug IPO price was Ugx. 70/= and was oversubscribed (200%). Current share price around Ugx. 26/=.

A law was passed last year requiring all telcos in Ug to spin off mobile money as separate legal entities so that they come under Bank of Uganda regulations. So it is not clear who actually owns the mobile money entity since this is contributes to over 40% of revenue and has potential growth.

I agree cross listing will give the stock more visibility and liquidity.


Ericsson
#27 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 1:03:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,121
Location: NAIROBI
kmucheke wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.


Stanbic Ug IPO price was Ugx. 70/= and was oversubscribed (200%). Current share price around Ugx. 26/=.

A law was passed last year requiring all telcos in Ug to spin off mobile money as separate legal entities so that they come under Bank of Uganda regulations. So it is not clear who actually owns the mobile money entity since this is contributes to over 40% of revenue and has potential growth.

I agree cross listing will give the stock more visibility and liquidity.





Stanbic uganda did a bonus share issue of 1:5 in 2012
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
kmucheke
#28 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 2:09:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 286
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.


Stanbic Ug IPO price was Ugx. 70/= and was oversubscribed (200%). Current share price around Ugx. 26/=.

A law was passed last year requiring all telcos in Ug to spin off mobile money as separate legal entities so that they come under Bank of Uganda regulations. So it is not clear who actually owns the mobile money entity since this is contributes to over 40% of revenue and has potential growth.

I agree cross listing will give the stock more visibility and liquidity.





Stanbic uganda did a bonus share issue of 1:5 in 2012


Thanks for that info. It explains a lot
obiero
#29 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 6:51:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,022
Location: nairobi
2.5% gain on day one. too modest. will wait it out
https://www.bloomberg.co...t-after-muted-ipo-demand
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#30 Posted : Monday, December 06, 2021 10:03:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,121
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
kmucheke
#31 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 7:40:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 286
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe
obiero
#32 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 9:27:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,022
Location: nairobi
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe

Well said
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 30,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#33 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 9:58:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,121
Location: NAIROBI
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe


The liabilities the government takes them similar to how Treasury took over Telkom Kenya liabilities during the privatisation.
Frequency spectrum will be part of the consideration that Safaricom will pay.
National optical fiber backbone is under NITA so Safaricom can lease for use,build its own or go wireless.
The cost of investment and modernization will be under Safaricom where they can negotiate on the price to be paid considering the costs they will incur to modernize.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 10:06:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,667
Location: Nairobi
kmucheke wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.


Stanbic Ug IPO price was Ugx. 70/= and was oversubscribed (200%). Current share price around Ugx. 26/=.

A law was passed last year requiring all telcos in Ug to spin off mobile money as separate legal entities so that they come under Bank of Uganda regulations. So it is not clear who actually owns the mobile money entity since this is contributes to over 40% of revenue and has potential growth.

I agree cross listing will give the stock more visibility and liquidity.


If MTN UG does not own MTN Money in Uganda then the 200/- price will crash! Safaricom had to buy MPesa in some sort of deal from Vodafone.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#35 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 10:08:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,667
Location: Nairobi
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.


Stanbic Ug IPO price was Ugx. 70/= and was oversubscribed (200%). Current share price around Ugx. 26/=.

A law was passed last year requiring all telcos in Ug to spin off mobile money as separate legal entities so that they come under Bank of Uganda regulations. So it is not clear who actually owns the mobile money entity since this is contributes to over 40% of revenue and has potential growth.

I agree cross listing will give the stock more visibility and liquidity.





Stanbic uganda did a bonus share issue of 1:5 in 2012


Thanks for that info. It explains a lot
5 for 1 or 1 for 5?
If 1 for 5 then it's a bust!

70 x 5 = 350. Ongeza 1:5 bonus for 6 shares. 350/6 = 58
Current price 26 so it is down 55%!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 10:10:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,667
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe


The liabilities the government takes them similar to how Treasury took over Telkom Kenya liabilities during the privatisation.
Frequency spectrum will be part of the consideration that Safaricom will pay.
National optical fiber backbone is under NITA so Safaricom can lease for use,build its own or go wireless.
The cost of investment and modernization will be under Safaricom where they can negotiate on the price to be paid considering the costs they will incur to modernize.
Since Ethiopia has slowed down until they sort themselves out, perhaps Saf should look at Uganda. Suspend the dividend for FY22 to fund their expansion into UG while watching Ethiopia.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#37 Posted : Wednesday, December 08, 2021 12:36:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,121
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.


Stanbic Ug IPO price was Ugx. 70/= and was oversubscribed (200%). Current share price around Ugx. 26/=.

A law was passed last year requiring all telcos in Ug to spin off mobile money as separate legal entities so that they come under Bank of Uganda regulations. So it is not clear who actually owns the mobile money entity since this is contributes to over 40% of revenue and has potential growth.

I agree cross listing will give the stock more visibility and liquidity.





Stanbic uganda did a bonus share issue of 1:5 in 2012


Thanks for that info. It explains a lot
5 for 1 or 1 for 5?
If 1 for 5 then it's a bust!

70 x 5 = 350. Ongeza 1:5 bonus for 6 shares. 350/6 = 58
Current price 26 so it is down 55%!


For every 1 share you were given 5
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#38 Posted : Wednesday, December 08, 2021 1:20:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,121
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe


The liabilities the government takes them similar to how Treasury took over Telkom Kenya liabilities during the privatisation.
Frequency spectrum will be part of the consideration that Safaricom will pay.
National optical fiber backbone is under NITA so Safaricom can lease for use,build its own or go wireless.
The cost of investment and modernization will be under Safaricom where they can negotiate on the price to be paid considering the costs they will incur to modernize.
Since Ethiopia has slowed down until they sort themselves out, perhaps Saf should look at Uganda. Suspend the dividend for FY22 to fund their expansion into UG while watching Ethiopia.


Or they look for a long term low interest loan of about 8 years,that way they can expand into Uganda without suspending dividends.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#39 Posted : Wednesday, December 08, 2021 9:37:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,121
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe


The liabilities the government takes them similar to how Treasury took over Telkom Kenya liabilities during the privatisation.
Frequency spectrum will be part of the consideration that Safaricom will pay.
National optical fiber backbone is under NITA so Safaricom can lease for use,build its own or go wireless.
The cost of investment and modernization will be under Safaricom where they can negotiate on the price to be paid considering the costs they will incur to modernize.
Since Ethiopia has slowed down until they sort themselves out, perhaps Saf should look at Uganda. Suspend the dividend for FY22 to fund their expansion into UG while watching Ethiopia.


The developments Ethio telecom is undertaking on its network and business will provide very stiff competition to Safaricom Ethiopia.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Wednesday, December 08, 2021 11:37:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,667
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kmucheke wrote:
obiero wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
64.8% subscription


Does this signify lack of confidence in the company or lack of liquidity in the market?

First day of trading on Monday will answer your questions


Why MTN Uganda’s IPO has failed to beat its target


External Factors
- This IPO was forced by the govt MTN was initially reluctant and only did it as licensing renewal requirement.
- The Uganda bourse is small with only 42,000 investors, and its performance is also lacklustre
- Covid 19 pandemic market aftershocks (job cuts, reduced incomes etc)
- Negative and biased social media commentaries

Internal Factors
- The IPO campaign by MTN was also lacklustre and not visible enough to excite the masses
- The share price was perceived to be too high and it was not clear to the public whether Mobile money will be part of the deal

Lets wait to see how the market will react

It could be another Safaricom, soon after listing, and if so then time for Kenyans to jump in at less than 6/-. It should cross-list on the NSE to attract Kenyans.



Safaricom should enter the Ugandan market through acquisition of majority stake of UTL


UTL is very risky venture after many years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Unless the government of Uganda clears the liabilities, gives tax waivers, offers free frequency spectrum, gives national backbone optical fiber network and other incentives. Then maybe


The liabilities the government takes them similar to how Treasury took over Telkom Kenya liabilities during the privatisation.
Frequency spectrum will be part of the consideration that Safaricom will pay.
National optical fiber backbone is under NITA so Safaricom can lease for use,build its own or go wireless.
The cost of investment and modernization will be under Safaricom where they can negotiate on the price to be paid considering the costs they will incur to modernize.
Since Ethiopia has slowed down until they sort themselves out, perhaps Saf should look at Uganda. Suspend the dividend for FY22 to fund their expansion into UG while watching Ethiopia.


The developments Ethio telecom is undertaking on its network and business will provide very stiff competition to Safaricom Ethiopia.
Which developments? Not talk but real improvements. How is Ethiotel funding these developments?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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