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86 Pages«<4243444546>»
William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022
Fyatu
#861 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 10:49:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,758
Location: Nakuru
Kusadikika wrote:
Huyu jamaa ni gwiji wa mistariApplause


Hii siasa iko na juu na chini
Vitisho ni mingi
Heshima ni kidogo
Na hapa katikati
Mabroker ni wengi






I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out. The church was silent and when he made a point they clapped.It was genuine clapping and applaud.

They clapped because he made sense and made a point and not because he was deputy president.Sio ile makofi ya uwongo, fitina, vendetta akina Ngunjiri, Tuju and Maina Kamanda clap for Uhuru in matangas and weddings.

I think wazuans should start treating the title of this thread as a null hypothesis because Ruto is going to be PORK in 2022.That is my opinion and opinion ni sareh(free)
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
2012
#862 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 11:06:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
Huyu jamaa ni gwiji wa mistariApplause


Hii siasa iko na juu na chini
Vitisho ni mingi
Heshima ni kidogo
Na hapa katikati
Mabroker ni wengi






I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out. The church was silent and when he made a point they clapped.It was genuine clapping and applaud.

They clapped because he made sense and made a point and not because he was deputy president.Sio ile makofi ya uwongo, fitina, vendetta akina Ngunjiri, Tuju and Maina Kamanda clap for Uhuru in matangas and weddings.

I think wazuans should start treating the title of this thread as a null hypothesis because Ruto is going to be PORK in 2022.That is my opinion and opinion ni sareh(free)


I agree. He is a master of the game. Learnt from the best. But he knows his only chance is bagging at least 80% of the Kikuyu vote with at least 75% voter turn-out, after all, Kenya politics is sadly about getting the tribal equations right. I think getting the numbers from Central will be impossible unless he gets a very formidable DP from that region. His other hope is to ensure the Luhya and Eastern vote is divided and he can get through with the Kale and few votes from everywhere else, I think this is what he should go for and not concentrate all his attention in Central.

BBI will solve it
:)
Angelica _ann
#863 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 11:11:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,709
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
wukan
#864 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 11:39:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,461
Fyatu wrote:


I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out. The church was silent and when he made a point they clapped.It was genuine clapping and applaud.

They clapped because he made sense and made a point and not because he was deputy president.Sio ile makofi ya uwongo, fitina, vendetta akina Ngunjiri, Tuju and Maina Kamanda clap for Uhuru in matangas and weddings.

I think wazuans should start treating the title of this thread as a null hypothesis because Ruto is going to be PORK in 2022.That is my opinion and opinion ni sareh(free)


In 2013 when I was in the thick of things Ruto was the best guy to move the crowds. Uhuru was terrible in his oration. Halfway through you could tell he had lost the crowd. Ruto ended defining that campaign between analogues and digital. He fired up the base but still that was not sufficient to win the election.

Elections are ultimately won by moving the swing voters. The 2013 swing voters were urban voters Nairobi and PK fans. If those voters had not swung the election results would have been very different. The swinging of those votes was not Ruto's doing. So you overrate the guy too much.

Uhuru did not make it with that 2013 swing vote in 2017. He ended up relying on western kenya/kisii to swing elections in his favour. There is a huge portion of the 2013 swing vote that did not turn up in 2017. Therein lies Ruto's weakness. This constituency is not swayed by hollow speeches and Ruto has not found a way to connect with the urban voters.

So far Ruto has not been able to change the narrative that he is the face of corruption in this administration. Ruto has not been able to define any alternative policies from the ones pursued by Uhuru. Ruto carries the burden of the policy missteps of this administration. 2022 will be a referendum on this administration and Ruto will be home by noon.

Lastly discussing Ruto is the equivalent of discussing KQ-both are losers going nowhere but lots of pages to keep us busy.


Njunge
#865 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 5:45:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 921
wukan wrote:
[quote=Fyatu]

I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out.




Overrated. A man is judged by the company he keeps. Someone who has murkoman, Sudi, didmus, ndindi, echesa, washialee and suchlike characters as his best friends, is, at best, daft.
murchr
#866 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 5:51:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,802
Njunge wrote:
wukan wrote:
[quote=Fyatu]

I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out.




Overrated. A man is judged by the company he keeps. Someone who has murkoman, Sudi, didmus, ndindi, echesa, washialee and suchlike characters as his best friends, is, at best, daft.


Same company uhuru kept until he got what he wanted
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
AlphDoti
#867 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 6:12:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2008
Posts: 6,247
Location: Kenya
Njunge wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out.

Overrated. A man is judged by the company he keeps. Someone who has murkoman, Sudi, didmus, ndindi, echesa, washialee and suchlike characters as his best friends, is, at best, daft.

@Fyatu ati Bible verses? Are you impressed by one who is fluent is Bible verses or the one who abides by?
Angelica _ann
#868 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 6:18:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,709
My take is that Ruto is banking on uhustler, Christian outlook & money to give him the presidency.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
AlphDoti
#869 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 6:51:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2008
Posts: 6,247
Location: Kenya
Angelica _ann wrote:
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.

He is one big fat liar! I'm still shocked how he lied about Mau. How he lied about Hague... and those followers cannot see through his white lies!
Njunge
#870 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 7:06:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 921
Angelica _ann wrote:
My take is that Ruto is banking on uhustler, Christian outlook & money to give him the presidency.


Many Kenyans can see through that hypocritical smokescreen... His Presidency will Not happen!
FRM2011
#871 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 7:08:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,458
Angelica _ann wrote:
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.


Numbers my dear don't lie. Of the 8.3M votes Uhuru got in 2017, 5.2M were purely tribal votes from the gema block both at home and the diaspora. Ruto brought around 2M votes. Kisii, western, coast, narok, kajiado and ukambani topped the balance.

The 8.3M was only 54%.

Free free to work out the scenarios that would give ruto 50%+1.
kaka2za
#872 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 7:26:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,015
Location: Gwitu
Turn out in Central will be around 60%. Lowest since 1992.
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
2012
#873 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 7:34:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
FRM2011 wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.


Numbers my dear don't lie. Of the 8.3M votes Uhuru got in 2017, 5.2M were purely tribal votes from the gema block both at home and the diaspora. Ruto brought around 2M votes. Kisii, western, coast, narok, kajiado and ukambani topped the balance.

The 8.3M was only 54%.

Free free to work out the scenarios that would give ruto 50%+1.


The tribal equation will not work out for him if he has a formidable opponent unless he gets at least 60% of Central.

BBI will solve it
:)
murchr
#874 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 7:44:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,802
2012 wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.


Numbers my dear don't lie. Of the 8.3M votes Uhuru got in 2017, 5.2M were purely tribal votes from the gema block both at home and the diaspora. Ruto brought around 2M votes. Kisii, western, coast, narok, kajiado and ukambani topped the balance.

The 8.3M was only 54%.

Free free to work out the scenarios that would give ruto 50%+1.


The tribal equation will not work out for him if he has a formidable opponent unless he gets at least 60% of Central.


Central will not vote religiously if they do not have a candidate. Merians usually vote for whoever serves their interests.

Crunch the numbers





"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Angelica _ann
#875 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 7:44:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,709
FRM2011 wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.


Numbers my dear don't lie. Of the 8.3M votes Uhuru got in 2017, 5.2M were purely tribal votes from the gema block both at home and the diaspora. Ruto brought around 2M votes. Kisii, western, coast, narok, kajiado and ukambani topped the balance.

The 8.3M was only 54%.

Free free to work out the scenarios that would give ruto 50%+1.


No way kwani what about Kaleo votes about 2m?
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Njunge
#876 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 9:29:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 921
Arap Mashamba's biggest threat is in his own RV backyard. Fortunately, for him, he has made more than enough enemies there.
Kusadikika
#877 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 10:20:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,681
2012 wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
DPORK is like Trump a big consistent liar who identifies with the masses. He identifies with the grass-root who are the real voters. He also says what people want to hear. At the moment he has no challenger, so I think he will win. Past 50% +1, i doubt.


Numbers my dear don't lie. Of the 8.3M votes Uhuru got in 2017, 5.2M were purely tribal votes from the gema block both at home and the diaspora. Ruto brought around 2M votes. Kisii, western, coast, narok, kajiado and ukambani topped the balance.

The 8.3M was only 54%.

Free free to work out the scenarios that would give ruto 50%+1.


The tribal equation will not work out for him if he has a formidable opponent unless he gets at least 60% of Central.


Central ndio battleground, Central is the swing state and fortunately or unfortunately Central does not have a Raila. There is no one in Central who can command people to vote a certain way. Even Uhuru.

In a way, Raila is the most powerful politician in Kenya. He is the only one who can swing a region. Uhuru and Ruto can pull votes for themselves from their communities but they can't swing the same for someone else.

And as long as Raila keeps attending weddings and funerals and saying Muriega andu a Kirinyaga, Muriega andu a Murang'a, Muriega andu a Nyeri etc he is making progress. I hate to admit it but this funeral strategy is hard to beat.
Fyatu
#878 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 11:59:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,758
Location: Nakuru
wukan wrote:
Fyatu wrote:


I watched DP Ruto address a congregation in Kiamaiko yesterday and must admit huyu jamaa sio mchezo.Underrate him at your own peril.He came out(atleast for me) as a humble man of the people. He was fluent in thought and speech. He easily quoted the bible and used bible verses as analogy to bring his points out. The church was silent and when he made a point they clapped.It was genuine clapping and applaud.

They clapped because he made sense and made a point and not because he was deputy president.Sio ile makofi ya uwongo, fitina, vendetta akina Ngunjiri, Tuju and Maina Kamanda clap for Uhuru in matangas and weddings.

I think wazuans should start treating the title of this thread as a null hypothesis because Ruto is going to be PORK in 2022.That is my opinion and opinion ni sareh(free)


In 2013 when I was in the thick of things Ruto was the best guy to move the crowds. Uhuru was terrible in his oration. Halfway through you could tell he had lost the crowd. Ruto ended defining that campaign between analogues and digital. He fired up the base but still that was not sufficient to win the election.

Elections are ultimately won by moving the swing voters. The 2013 swing voters were urban voters Nairobi and PK fans. If those voters had not swung the election results would have been very different. The swinging of those votes was not Ruto's doing. So you overrate the guy too much.

Uhuru did not make it with that 2013 swing vote in 2017. He ended up relying on western kenya/kisii to swing elections in his favour. There is a huge portion of the 2013 swing vote that did not turn up in 2017. Therein lies Ruto's weakness. This constituency is not swayed by hollow speeches and Ruto has not found a way to connect with the urban voters.

So far Ruto has not been able to change the narrative that he is the face of corruption in this administration. Ruto has not been able to define any alternative policies from the ones pursued by Uhuru. Ruto carries the burden of the policy missteps of this administration. 2022 will be a referendum on this administration and Ruto will be home by noon.

Lastly discussing Ruto is the equivalent of discussing KQ-both are losers going nowhere but lots of pages to keep us busy.





The only way to sanitize himself(my two cents), is to surprise friend and foe, by confessing and asking for forgiveness for all the "perceived" sins he has been accused of, in broad daylight and even better, in a random church. This move, despite very hard to pull will put this small matter of corruption to rest and endear him more to the masses.Pressure will now shift to other "perceived" corrupt politicians to cleanse themselves.

Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
madollar
#879 Posted : Tuesday, July 16, 2019 2:59:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 1,968
Location: GA
Njunge wrote:
Arap Mashamba's biggest threat is in his own RV backyard. Fortunately, for him, he has made more than enough enemies there.

Me thinks its the moment he names his running mate ndio wakati the hustler narrative will evaporate, depending on who it will be he risks loosing a sizeable no of votes

If he picks from GEMA will the rest of the country stand with him if picks outside GEMA how will the mountain react.

Hapa he needs to tip toe carefully if raila maintains his constituency alafu mountain iyumbe yumbe then its game on
freiks
#880 Posted : Tuesday, July 16, 2019 11:16:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/8/2010
Posts: 1,727
madollar wrote:
Njunge wrote:
Arap Mashamba's biggest threat is in his own RV backyard. Fortunately, for him, he has made more than enough enemies there.

Me thinks its the moment he names his running mate ndio wakati the hustler narrative will evaporate, depending on who it will be he risks loosing a sizeable no of votes

If he picks from GEMA will the rest of the country stand with him if picks outside GEMA how will the mountain react.

Hapa he needs to tip toe carefully if raila maintains his constituency alafu mountain iyumbe yumbe then its game on


What if Sonko becomes WSR running mate? Those reading too much on Moses Kuria wanjiku revolution just remember that they use the same chopper with WSR
Life is an endless adventure
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