Home SK - Stocks, Property, Investment Chamas - Investment Groups BIZ - Small Business Soko - Market Wazua Life About Wazua
SIGN IN REGISTER
Tuesday, Sep 22, 2020
Investor
We’re investing funds for profit. Join us and wazua!
LATEST DISCUSSIONS
Madness at the NSE [2330]
Coop Bank 2019 [141]
City home owners face losses in suspect land deal ... [10]
Kenya Airways...why ignore.. [15082]
Safaricom 2019/2020 [417]
Stanlib Fahari I-Reit FY 2019 [37]
Kenya Power HY 2019 [261]
Why dustbowl is the future [653]
KenGen HY 2019 [577]
NMG FY 2018 and Beyond [171]
KCB buy buy buy [1236]
Trading: Commodities, Equities, Forex, Crypto Etc [1]
Speculating in cryptocurrencies: A rough approach [327]
Banque de Kigali [474]
Potential merger NIC + CBA [262]
 
Forum Jump








Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

183 Pages«<179180181182183>
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
VituVingiSana
#3601 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:36:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Quote:
NSE slides to 17-year low as stocks suffer huge losses

Quote:
Kenya’s stock market hit a new 17-year low in Tuesday’s trading as most stocks continued to suffer losses.

The benchmark NSE 20 Share Index closed at 1,794.6 points, a level last seen on April 28, 2003.

The performance has pushed the current bear market to five-and-a-half years, with the index falling 67.3 per cent from the peak of 5,491.3 points recorded on February 2, 2015.


Quote:
Since the year begun, Nation Media Group , Bamburi Cement and Nairobi Securities Exchange (the bourse operator) have seen their stocks drop the most by 73.1, 67.1 and 44.9 per cent to trade at Sh10.1, Sh28 and Sh6.7 respectively.

Safaricom, the largest company on the bourse, has also shed 14.7 per cent over the same period to close at Sh26.4 in yesterday’s trading session.




Quote:
Scores of NSE-listed firms have already warned investors that their earnings will fall by 25 per cent or more in their current financial year, citing depressed demand and restrictions on travel and social activities, among other factors.


We have known this from at least 2014/2015 when I introduced guys here to Socionomics. But many were and continue to be dismissive of this powerful tool! Well, if you can't learn from history then you are bound to repeat the same. Human nature never changes. What is, is what has been and is what will be thither and hither

And yet instead of doom and gloom, some of us have increased our net worth since 2014/15 in a FALLING market.

Why? How?

1) Selection. Safaricom in 2020 vs 2014. KK 2019 (buyout) vs 2014. Also adjust for bonuses
2) Dividends. Look at what Scan will pay! Or Saf has paid. Or Williamson and Kapchorua since 2014/15.
3) Commission/trading costs to get in/out of positions.

If one bought duds like Mumias, KQ, HAFR, ARM then... d'oh!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#3602 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:39:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks
No, not all individual stocks have fallen in lock-step.

Chart out Safaricom vs NSE 20
Or Kenol Kobil.

Plus for firms that are doing well, we need not sell.
The current share price, whereas important, is not the value of the share.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#3603 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:41:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
heri wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.



Is safaricom not benefiting to some extent with the online learning, online transactions ,home fibre uptake etc .


The problem with fundamental analysis as practised the world over is that goal posts keep changing as if on whim (Elliotticians have studied this, due to uncertainity the herd will explain a way a market move by rationalizing a myriad of reasons to befit the ensuing environment) .

Just at about the time Safaricom results were posted and repeated my call for Safaricom share to fall, I was told that that scenario (fall in price) would not happen because the stellar results would push the share price higher. That hasn't happened!

Now, with the reality that the share is actually flounding, we get a new reason (* a rationalization) that the share is falling due to foreigners who fear a depreciating shilling. Shame on you

These are conflicting causality for market dynamics. At what point did the stellar performance stop being a factor in the direction of the market before the depreciating shilling took over?

The thing with fundamental analysis is that the practioners use a lot of technical jargon which makes it sound quiet attractive and noble to the herd. True, there are very sharp economic minds trying to figure the direction of the markets. But, and this is key, all that effort is useless in the face of reality. this bear market is proving the futility of relying on news to forecast a market.

If market direction depended on fundamentals then the Professors and PHD holders in economics would be outperforming the market at every turn. Studies have proven this not to be the case. The reason for this is that there is a distinction between economics and finance. Causality in economics (supply and demand leading to equilibrium prices) is quite distinct from causality in finance (mass psychology due to subconscious impulses).

In short, in economics you rely on your neocortex to make rational decisions eg you would buy more of an item at a lowered price than when the price is higher. On the other hand, in Finance decisions are made from the subconscious pre-rational part of the brain (the limbic system). Thus, for example, animals in the wild herd to increase their chances of survival in case of an attack by a predator. This behaviour is caused by uncertainity (key) thus the need to derive safety in numbers.

During evolution of the human brain(I hear some say they don't believe in evolution, Shame on you ) the limbic system was retained as an important part.

Quote:
The limbic system is a set of structures in the brain that deal with emotions and memory. It regulates autonomic or endocrine function in response to emotional stimuli and also is involved in reinforcing behavior

link

It is the limbic system that takes part when you are trading in financial instruments. For one, there is no tangible utility one derives from holding financial instruments unlike say buying bread. In the financial arena people behave differently from when they are in economic arena. For example, when a share price is falling you will find that there are fewer holders. Yet when the share price is rising the number of people who want to buy at ever higher prices increases exponentially.

In the Financial arena there is uncertainity (no one knows the direction of the market) thus the only way for participants to feel some level of safety is to seek people of similar opinion. Yes, they herd because they assume the crowd knows best.

The interesting thing with herding is that those who do it actually have no knowledge that they herd. It is afterall a subconscious thing! So when fundamental practioners give one reason or another for a market move, what they are actually doing is rationalizing the reason for the move after the move. Your limbic system is fast and will impell the neocortex to procure a very rational reason for what the subconscious has effectively 'decided' upon. And this is what they do day in day out.

For more on this subject read:

The Triune Brain in Evolution: Role in Paleocerebral Functions by P.D. Maclean

as well the Socionomics books by Robert Prechter.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3604 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:42:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks
No, not all individual stocks have fallen in lock-step.

Chart out Safaricom vs NSE 20
Or Kenol Kobil.

Plus for firms that are doing well, we need not sell.
The current share price, whereas important, is not the value of the share.


I meant in the aggregate.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#3605 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:49:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
Monk wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks


@Mnandii You missed @Ericsson's point. My ABP on some counters I've held for long is below current price, the index notwithstanding.


You are also missing the point that the market is giving you aggregate information through the index. Using ABP is like using current rent to calculate your rental yield on the purchase price of your house you bought in bururubu in 1990. You create too much distortion and you do not therefore employ capital in the proper way.
A house on 1 acre along Thika Highway vs a house in Buruburu bought in 1990 [assuming one paid the same] is very different in 2020.
I like to use "London" as an example. The prices of properties in the UK (in aggregate) have seen a log since 2014 vs LONDON (city) which has seen prices RISE. So land and house owners in London aren't feeling the pain of the "aggregate"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Angelica _ann
#3606 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:52:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,700
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks
No, not all individual stocks have fallen in lock-step.

Chart out Safaricom vs NSE 20
Or Kenol Kobil.

Plus for firms that are doing well, we need not sell.
The current share price, whereas important, is not the value of the share.


I meant in the aggregate.


Some of us have posted the shares we hold and why we hold them. So we sleep easy. Once in a while you are caught in ARM (I have said never again), and you learn from that. Looking at the economy (plus COVID), it was obvious the stock market was headed for a nose dive and i expect it to dip further until around 2022. So better hold defensive stocks.

You have also got some of your predictions wrong like NMG on 2nd June 2020 and it is still falling - you are not perfect the way you want us to believe.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
VituVingiSana
#3607 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:52:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
Perhaps someone has the info but how was the NSE 20 Index calculated in 2014/15?

The weighting of each constituent?

As an example, KQ was still at 12-ish?
Same KQ closed at 1.25-ish given there was a 1:4 consolidation. That's 10%.

Compare to Safaricom (and include dividends).

So a portfolio with ONLY Safaricom. 100% Saf. Nothing else. This would have handily beaten the NSE 20 Index.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#3608 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 10:56:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
@mmnandii - Let's pick specific stocks. I am only interested in what I own.
Centum, KenRe, Unga, I&M, C&G and SCB [my major holdings = 85%]

NBV, HAFR, etc are of zero interest to me.
http://wazua.co.ke/forum...38011&p=5#post900230
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#3609 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 11:00:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
mnandii wrote:
heri wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.



Is safaricom not benefiting to some extent with the online learning, online transactions ,home fibre uptake etc .


The problem with fundamental analysis as practised the world over is that goal posts keep changing as if on whim (Elliotticians have studied this, due to uncertainity the herd will explain a way a market move by rationalizing a myriad of reasons to befit the ensuing environment) .

Just at about the time Safaricom results were posted and repeated my call for Safaricom share to fall, I was told that that scenario (fall in price) would not happen because the stellar results would push the share price higher. That hasn't happened!

Now, with the reality that the share is actually flounding, we get a new reason (* a rationalization) that the share is falling due to foreigners who fear a depreciating shilling. Shame on you

These are conflicting causality for market dynamics. At what point did the stellar performance stop being a factor in the direction of the market before the depreciating shilling took over?

The thing with fundamental analysis is that the practioners use a lot of technical jargon which makes it sound quiet attractive and noble to the herd. True, there are very sharp economic minds trying to figure the direction of the markets. But, and this is key, all that effort is useless in the face of reality. this bear market is proving the futility of relying on news to forecast a market.

If market direction depended on fundamentals then the Professors and PHD holders in economics would be outperforming the market at every turn. Studies have proven this not to be the case. The reason for this is that there is a distinction between economics and finance. Causality in economics (supply and demand leading to equilibrium prices) is quite distinct from causality in finance (mass psychology due to subconscious impulses).

In short, in economics you rely on your neocortex to make rational decisions eg you would buy more of an item at a lowered price than when the price is higher. On the other hand, in Finance decisions are made from the subconscious pre-rational part of the brain (the limbic system). Thus, for example, animals in the wild herd to increase their chances of survival in case of an attack by a predator. This behaviour is caused by uncertainity (key) thus the need to derive safety in numbers.

During evolution of the human brain(I hear some say they don't believe in evolution, Shame on you ) the limbic system was retained as an important part.

Quote:
The limbic system is a set of structures in the brain that deal with emotions and memory. It regulates autonomic or endocrine function in response to emotional stimuli and also is involved in reinforcing behavior

link

It is the limbic system that takes part when you are trading in financial instruments. For one, there is no tangible utility one derives from holding financial instruments unlike say buying bread. In the financial arena people behave differently from when they are in economic arena. For example, when a share price is falling you will find that there are fewer holders. Yet when the share price is rising the number of people who want to buy at ever higher prices increases exponentially.

In the Financial arena there is uncertainity (no one knows the direction of the market) thus the only way for participants to feel some level of safety is to seek people of similar opinion. Yes, they herd because they assume the crowd knows best.

The interesting thing with herding is that those who do it actually have no knowledge that they herd. It is afterall a subconscious thing! So when fundamental practioners give one reason or another for a market move, what they are actually doing is rationalizing the reason for the move after the move. Your limbic system is fast and will impell the neocortex to procure a very rational reason for what the subconscious has effectively 'decided' upon. And this is what they do day in day out.

For more on this subject read:

The Triune Brain in Evolution: Role in Paleocerebral Functions by P.D. Maclean

as well the Socionomics books by Robert Prechter.


Let's tie this with Elliott Waves:
People herding in the Financial arena create patterns that repeat on regular intervals. This repetitive behaviour is what creates predictability in the markets. This predictable repetitive behaviour is what creates patterns that Ralph Nelson Elliott set out to painstakingly journal and he succeeded in doing so. In short, mass psychology produce patterns that repeat in a predictable fashion according to Elliott Waves.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3610 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 11:18:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
The fall below 1800 went unnoticed...talk about wazuans burnt to recognition


smile

Yeah. So quiet Laughing out loudly
How many of us invest in the NSE Index?
It's a misleading representation for most Wazuans. Means little.

Yes
We look at individual counters and position ourselves.


Stocks have fallen in lock step with the index. And the index is derived from individual stocks
No, not all individual stocks have fallen in lock-step.

Chart out Safaricom vs NSE 20
Or Kenol Kobil.

Plus for firms that are doing well, we need not sell.
The current share price, whereas important, is not the value of the share.


I meant in the aggregate.


Some of us have posted the shares we hold and why we hold them. So we sleep easy. Once in a while you are caught in ARM (I have said never again), and you learn from that. Looking at the economy (plus COVID), it was obvious the stock market was headed for a nose dive and i expect it to dip further until around 2022. So better hold defensive stocks.

You have also got some of your predictions wrong like NMG on 2nd June 2020 and it is still falling - you are not perfect the way you want us to believe.


Thanks. I don't really think I have wanted to create an impression of infallibility. If that is the case then I am sorry. But again there are several instances where I have acknowledged here and elsewhere when I was srong.

The thing is that my intentions of posting on Elliott Waves here is to try to convince the few (true Elliotticians will always be few, the rest will herd and create the patterns we rely upon to predict the market) that there is a better and clearer and scientific way to view the markets absent the noise. My ideal goal would be to create a spark of interest to get the few to open up their eyes to a new and interesting realm. I would want them to experience the excitement I felt at the time I discovered the wonderful world of Elliott. Coz when you discover Elliott, a new and wonderful world suddenly opens up to you. You start to see things differently and correctly.

I am also aware that a majority will never be convinced coz truly Elliott is difficult to accept (learning can be easy but accepting is something else altogether). Accepting Elliott means you have uninstall your operating system you have lived with all your life. It means unlearning a whole lot of what you have assumed and come to believe to be true. It means a complete change of identity. That, my dear, is scary for many. Remember also that your limbic system will be standing right across your path. The limbic system is subconscious. Only few can overcome it.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3611 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 11:22:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mmnandii - Let's pick specific stocks. I am only interested in what I own.
Centum, KenRe, Unga, I&M, C&G and SCB [my major holdings = 85%]

NBV, HAFR, etc are of zero interest to me.
http://wazua.co.ke/forum...8011&p=5#post900230


Okay. I'll look up the shares
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3612 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 12:26:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,249
Few people give The Wave Principle any quotient of validity. But study is important to dispel incredulity.

PART III of THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR AND THE NEW SCIENCE OF SOCIONOMICS by Rober Prechter begins thus:


Quote:

PART III
THE BASIS OF THE WAVE PRINCIPLE IN BIOLOGY, PSYCHOLOGY AND SOCIOLOGY

The formal construction of the stock market's path implies a mechanism of impulsive cooperation on the part of the market participants and therefore of society at large. Because aggregate stock price movement is intricately patterned, there must be primary causes of its behaviour, forces that shape it. Part III argues that the primary mover of aggregate stock market prices is mass emotional change, which itself must be, and demonstrably is, independent of outside influence. The specifics of market action are determined by the naturally occurring direction, speed and extent of social mood changes.

If the Wave Principle were the only basis for making this claim, then proof would rest entirely upon demonstrating the validity of the Wave Principle. I believe the literature (including Chapters 5 through 7 of this book) has done a fair job of doing so. For many people, though, that is not enough to dispel skepticism. Is there any other basis to believe that mass emotional change is independent of social events and conditions? Are there biological and psychological sources of these emotional imperatives? Science provides insights that respond to this question in the affirmative


The Wave Principle is not merely another theory without basis. Painstaking work and research has been done to prove its validity. The Wave Principle validates itself. Whats more, it has a basis in science, which is gives it even better foundation.

The book I have quoted is 450 pages of pure insight. Any intellectually inclined individual would salivate for such information. I encourage you to take a step into this fascinating world.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Ericsson
#3613 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 8:29:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,838
Location: NAIROBI
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.


Mimi naingoja at maximum price of 18
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
heri
#3614 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2020 3:06:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 776
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
mnandii wrote:
When the CEO of a company appears in the front pages of a magazine celebrating success, consider that a MAJOR TOP in that company's share price. SELL Safaricom and target to buy it at sub-10 bob!

BOB COLLYMORE: JOY AND PAIN OF RUNNING SAFARICOM

We may not get to KES 10 but KES 16 shall print before end of next week


Remember the way Safcom played around 2 - 2.50 for sometime? A similar scenario is in the offing for the sub - 10 bob. Safcom is FIVE Waves Up. A major correction is due.

I'll be posting charts soon.


Did we ever see this ?
heri
#3615 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2020 3:11:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 776
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Five waves up in Safaricom. Expecting a move down to 14.35 to make wave 'A'.



very nice. Wave C takes us all the way to 10Pray Pray


Likely below 10. See how wave 2 retraced alot of wave 1.




Did we ever see these prices predicted in 2017 ?
Monk
#3616 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2020 9:38:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 184
@mnandii KCB is currently on a free fall :(. Where do you foresee it bottoming out?
VituVingiSana
#3617 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2020 11:08:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#3618 Posted : Saturday, August 08, 2020 8:33:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,448
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?


Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts.
VituVingiSana
#3619 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2020 7:00:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,196
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?


Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts.
So fundamentals precede the charts. In other words, fundamentals are the now, charts are history.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#3620 Posted : Monday, August 10, 2020 3:51:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,448
VituVingiSana wrote:
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?


Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts.
So fundamentals precede the charts. In other words, fundamentals are the now, charts are history.


Human behaviour is what precedes everything and you are going to see it in totality in charts which you can use to predict price direction and momentum. E.g. the candlestick charts were codified by a Japanese rice trader(Munehisa Homma) who observed the same set of behaviour in the rice market that emotions have a decisive influence on the price of rice. Fundamentals is just one of the ingredients of the market and as you might have observed in this bear run it's not the most decisive factor. Charts are not history just predictive models based on historical information.
Users browsing this topic
Guest
183 Pages«<179180181182183>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Home | . .. Investor | .. . Groups | .. . SME | . . . Market | .. . Club SK | . ..... About Wazua | . .. Search | . ..Sitemap | . ..Support | . ..Disclaimer | . ..Privacy Policy | . ..Terms of Use | . .. Contact Us
Copyright © 2020 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.