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111 Pages«<108109110111>
Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
My 2 cents
#2181 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2022 6:51:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 862
obiero wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
littledove wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
piedpiper wrote:
HFCK back to lows of ~3.60. Losses are the order of the day. Is there any hope for this so called diamond in the rough...let us wait and watch

The only stock that I am currently eyeing, buying in cautious bits

Whyyyyy? You enjoy the pain too much. There are "cheap" banks that could give you better returns.
Even foreign buyers would want a bank with less drama and there are plenty of Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks up for sale.


He's waiting for a buyout.

More like imminent buyout

The exchange bar knows a lot



In advising people to buy dead companies

Hehe. Time and tide respect no man. You cant stop the rain. Watch and learn


sidian was bought at 4.3b for 83% which values sidian @5b.
The valuation was arrived at using “a price-to-book multiple of 1.1x based on the audited 31 March 2022 shareholders’ equity of Sidian,” Access Bank said in a regulatory filing by its parent company on Wednesday seen by PREMIUM TIMES.
Total assets around 43b. How does that compare with housing finance which is bigger than sidian. I understand there
are some banks conducting due diligence what should we expect if the same valuation metric is applied.

Sidian makes a higher profit than Housing Finance.
Sidian was in compliance with all statutory ratios while HFCK is in breach

Jibu swali, what is the asset size of HF vs Sidian
Even if the BS is larger the reality is that the NET ASSETS is what matters. Add to that the QUALITY of the assets. Buyers will not pay full price for loans that are in default.

HF probably comes with a lot of baggage and needs a lot of fresh capital to buttress the coming NPLs and Provisions as the economy keeps hurting. Good luck!

Asante big brother. I need all the luck as I am looking to buy an extra 200,000 shares by next week
Sad I rather you do not but it is your money.

Once I commit to a course, I don't stop. Thanks for the attempt to dissuade.. I know fair value is KES 12, but will consider jumping out at any price above KES 7, which will print before end of this year ceteris paribus. Bookmark this


“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” - Warren Buffet

HF is not even a fair company, it is a rubbish company. The 600k you are about to spend is an expensive education in investing. Please buy Safaricom instead.

Let's meet here God willing in December 2022


For record purposes
16th June 2022

HF - 3.02 per share
Safaricom - 25.05 per share

Lets circle back in one year. 6 months too short.

My 2 cents
#2182 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2022 6:52:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 862
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
littledove wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
piedpiper wrote:
HFCK back to lows of ~3.60. Losses are the order of the day. Is there any hope for this so called diamond in the rough...let us wait and watch

The only stock that I am currently eyeing, buying in cautious bits

Whyyyyy? You enjoy the pain too much. There are "cheap" banks that could give you better returns.
Even foreign buyers would want a bank with less drama and there are plenty of Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks up for sale.


He's waiting for a buyout.

More like imminent buyout

The exchange bar knows a lot



In advising people to buy dead companies

Hehe. Time and tide respect no man. You cant stop the rain. Watch and learn


sidian was bought at 4.3b for 83% which values sidian @5b.
The valuation was arrived at using “a price-to-book multiple of 1.1x based on the audited 31 March 2022 shareholders’ equity of Sidian,” Access Bank said in a regulatory filing by its parent company on Wednesday seen by PREMIUM TIMES.
Total assets around 43b. How does that compare with housing finance which is bigger than sidian. I understand there
are some banks conducting due diligence what should we expect if the same valuation metric is applied.

Sidian makes a higher profit than Housing Finance.
Sidian was in compliance with all statutory ratios while HFCK is in breach

Jibu swali, what is the asset size of HF vs Sidian
Even if the BS is larger the reality is that the NET ASSETS is what matters. Add to that the QUALITY of the assets. Buyers will not pay full price for loans that are in default.

HF probably comes with a lot of baggage and needs a lot of fresh capital to buttress the coming NPLs and Provisions as the economy keeps hurting. Good luck!

Asante big brother. I need all the luck as I am looking to buy an extra 200,000 shares by next week
Sad I rather you do not but it is your money.

Once I commit to a course, I don't stop. Thanks for the attempt to dissuade.. I know fair value is KES 12, but will consider jumping out at any price above KES 7, which will print before end of this year ceteris paribus. Bookmark this


“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” - Warren Buffet

HF is not even a fair company, it is a rubbish company. The 600k you are about to spend is an expensive education in investing. Please buy Safaricom instead.

Let's meet here God willing in December 2022


Jubilee killed the small banks with rate caps. It will take a decade before the small banks can thrive again.


I think in future there will be much more consolidation. Fewer but bigger banks in the market.
obiero
#2183 Posted : Friday, June 17, 2022 6:32:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
piedpiper wrote:
HFCK back to lows of ~3.60. Losses are the order of the day. Is there any hope for this so called diamond in the rough...let us wait and watch

The only stock that I am currently eyeing, buying in cautious bits

Whyyyyy? You enjoy the pain too much. There are "cheap" banks that could give you better returns.
Even foreign buyers would want a bank with less drama and there are plenty of Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks up for sale.


He's waiting for a buyout.

More like imminent buyout

The exchange bar knows a lot



In advising people to buy dead companies

Cough cough https://www.businessdail...pany-for-lending-3849788

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2184 Posted : Friday, June 17, 2022 1:54:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
A standoff. Fair value is KES 12


COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#2185 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2022 8:21:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,373
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
A standoff. Fair value is KES 12


Not even half of 12 in its current state and form.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#2186 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2022 7:06:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
A standoff. Fair value is KES 12


Not even half of 12 in its current state and form.

Liwe liwalo, tomorrow I place my order for 200,000 HFC at KES 3

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2187 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2022 7:33:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
A standoff. Fair value is KES 12


Not even half of 12 in its current state and form.

Liwe liwalo, tomorrow I place my order for 200,000 HFC at KES 3

Unable to get full order quenched. Literally no seller. Just got 11,400 out of 200,000!

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
DtheK
#2188 Posted : Saturday, June 25, 2022 3:29:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 103
Location: Kenya
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.
obiero
#2189 Posted : Saturday, June 25, 2022 7:29:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2190 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2022 11:24:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
Zero supply

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2191 Posted : Tuesday, June 28, 2022 7:00:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#2192 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2022 6:23:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,373
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn


Has a buyer been found or is there one they are negotiating with.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
sparkly
#2193 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2022 7:56:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,066
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn


Asset stripping. The evidence is right before your eyes.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#2194 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2022 1:00:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn


Has a buyer been found or is there one they are negotiating with.

That building is being demanded by all real estate realtors in Africa

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2195 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2022 1:02:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn


Has a buyer been found or is there one they are negotiating with.

That building is being demanded by all real estate realtors in Africa

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2196 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2022 3:59:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
It's not too late to board. The bus is leaving. 8% increase of HFCK share price since June 3rd, which is eighth best on NSE tells a tale.. very few here have had 8% ROI since June 3rd!

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2197 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2022 11:52:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn


Asset stripping. The evidence is right before your eyes.

KES 5.20 is a 52 week ceiling that will be broken by next week. Watch and learn

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2198 Posted : Wednesday, July 06, 2022 8:44:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
CEO's statement From the annual report;
Exiting real estate expected to release more cash.
(Clay City Apartments and Richland Pointe Apartments within the year).
Projection to reduce NPLs by 3.8 Billion this year(NPL ratio down to 20% in 1st quarter).
Anticipating 800M capital injection.
A promise to start dividend payouts in the short term.
With that in mind a net profit of at least 100M year end is not a tall order.
7 bob before year end itakuwa ngumu.
Other intresting facts from report;
Britam lent them 1 billion at 12.94%.
Sale of Rehani house by year end.

@DtheK these are facts. A declaration of KES 1 dividend will drive this thing through the NSE roof. Over 30% dividend yield! Imagine that

Note, this will be a special dividend from Rehani House. At KES 7.00 I will consider selling. Meanwhile, in next 16 days we touch KES 4.. Watch and learn


Asset stripping. The evidence is right before your eyes.

KES 5.20 is a 52 week ceiling that will be broken by next week. Watch and learn

Well.. We are 8 days early. Today we sight KES 4 intrw day. By end of next week we will see KES 5.2. AT KES 7 I may exit depending on what the exchange bar whispers

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
sparkly
#2199 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2022 2:07:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,066
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@Obiero you said KQ would hit 20, then it ended up suspended.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#2200 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2022 2:59:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,125
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
@Obiero you said KQ would hit 20, then it ended up suspended.

It did hit KES 20: upon initial relisting. suspension isn't death

COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 261,000 ABP 3.49; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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