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> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking
stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 12:36:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.
Impunity
#2 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 12:56:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,148
Location: Masada
stocksmaster wrote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


Applause
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Insurgent
#3 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:11:05 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/6/2010
Posts: 594
Quote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@Master of Stocks...Good strategy. What do you think of Mumias?


"One man gives freely, yet gains even more; another withholds unduly, but comes to poverty. A generous man will prosper; he who refreshes others will himself be refreshed." Rev Canon Karanja.

cnn
#4 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:14:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,560
On 1 and 2 taking an exact strategy,on 3 i am not so sure,those WTK directors have their own way of thinking.
lovely2010
#5 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:33:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Insurgent wrote:
Quote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@Master of Stocks...Good strategy. What do you think of Mumias?


I think mumias is in my priority list...if its gets lower and with a dividend of .50c...I think its a good deal...in terms of dividend yield.
stocksmaster
#6 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:41:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Insurgent wrote:
Quote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@Master of Stocks...Good strategy. What do you think of Mumias?


Mumias as at June 2011 had an EPS of Ksh 1.26 and a dividend of Ksh 0.50. At todays prevailing price of Ksh 4.70, thats a dividend yield of 10.6%.

However, for Mumias i would only jump in as the dividend yield approaches 15% (target price of below Ksh 3.30).
Reason: Sustainability of the EPS once the sugar industry protection safeguards are eliminated. At a 15% annual dividend return, by the time the safeguards dissapear in 3 years time, i will have recovered almost half of my investment as dividends.The extra 5% is the risk premium.

The ethanol, mineral water,power cogeneration and remaining sugar market should at least assure my investment 8-10% return on investment even if the COMESA sugar imports hits MUMIAS bottom line post 2015.

Check today's Mumias price trend and you will realise that sub Ksh 4 will materialise by Christmas.

Happy Hunting.
stocksmaster
#7 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:58:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
cnn wrote:
On 1 and 2 taking an exact strategy,on 3 i am not so sure,those WTK directors have their own way of thinking.


I think i understand the conservative thinking of the Williamson Directors and Management (majority of whom are British). The risk of giving an outsized dividend is on sustainability.They wouldn't want to give a dividend of Ksh 15 only to give Ksh 5 the next year.
In effect, their futuristic approach is to accumulate 'excess profits' as revenue reserves for issuing as dividends in years of scarcity. This ensures some dividend payment even when the company makes a loss (unpredictability of rain fed agriculture).

However, the effect of three successive years of EPS in the Ksh 100 region has created oversized revenue reserves that should now support a > Ksh 15 dividend for the next at least 5 years.

I may be wrong, but i have a feeling that last years Ksh 15 dividend established a new baseline in dividend payment for this company.

Happy Hunting.
kenmac
#8 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:55:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,790
having followed the advice of @stockmaster on kenolkobil and benefited, am a faithful follower of this advice.
......Ecclesiastes
guru267
#9 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 10:04:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,665
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:


I think i understand the conservative thinking of the Williamson Directors and Management (majority of whom are British). The risk of giving an outsized dividend is on sustainability.They wouldn't want to give a dividend of Ksh 15 only to give Ksh 5 the next year.
In effect, their futuristic approach is to accumulate 'excess profits' as revenue reserves for issuing as dividends in years of scarcity. This ensures some dividend payment even when the company makes a loss (unpredictability of rain fed agriculture).

However, the effect of three successive years of EPS in the Ksh 100 region has created oversized revenue reserves that should now support a > Ksh 15 dividend for the next at least 5 years.

I may be wrong, but i have a feeling that last years Ksh 15 dividend established a new baseline in dividend payment for this company.

Happy Hunting.


Knowing the directors I think with an EPS of 140 the 15bob dividend will be maintained with a special dividend of 10-15 included...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
simonkabz
#10 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 11:41:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,732
Location: Cameroon
Keep 'em coming master, keep 'em coming and dnt tire out brother.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
Scubidu
#11 Posted : Saturday, December 03, 2011 6:50:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@stockmaster. If I'm based in Uganda and I want to enjoy these dividend yields, what can I do to make sure my return is not eroded by currency movements?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
stocksmaster
#12 Posted : Saturday, December 03, 2011 8:13:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
@ Scubidu: T-bills in Uganda are currently yielding 24-25%. They may be better value for money especially for you whose based in Uganda.

Happy Hunting.
Scubidu
#13 Posted : Sunday, December 04, 2011 3:55:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
@ Scubidu: T-bills in Uganda are currently yielding 24-25%. They may be better value for money especially for you whose based in Uganda.

Happy Hunting.


Not going to be here for long mate and don't know how long these rates will stay. Besides Tbills are boring. Nway I'm sure there's some solution banks can offer to prevent me from any exposure. Ta very much.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
youcan'tstopusnow
#14 Posted : Monday, January 02, 2012 10:38:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Dividend pay fails to shield blue-chip stocks

Top dividend-paying stocks at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) were not spared the share price devaluations in 2011, recording falls that in some cases were more than the average drop of the market index.

Pan Africa, Barclays, EA Cables, Mumias Sugar and StanChart were the top five dividend-yielding stocks at the NSE in 2011.

However, three of their share prices fell by more than the NSE 20-Share Index, which lost 28 per cent of its value in the year.

http://www.businessdaily.../-/1505y9b/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
stocksmaster
#15 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2012 11:16:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.



My stock picking strategy for 2012 seems to be working with Williamson announcing an Interim Dividend of Ksh 50.

In the next 4 months (End of year March 2012 Results), they should be announcing a second dividend which should be in the range of Ksh 15 - 20.

I feel like a farmer about to receive his tea bonus having bought a sizeable chunk at Ksh 186.

Happy Hunting.

QW25091985
#16 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2012 11:21:36 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
woooaw . lucky you.
cnn
#17 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2012 11:35:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,560
cnn wrote:
On 1 and 2 taking an exact strategy,on 3 i am not so sure,those WTK directors have their own way of thinking.

They have pleasantly surprised me.
Ericsson
#18 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2012 12:19:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,398
Location: NAIROBI
Avoid Centum since they are not issuing any dividends.I wonder how its going forward its going to be now that they have sold their portfolio in the NSE.
Real Estate will take time before it starts generating profits
stocksmaster
#19 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2012 4:34:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 377
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
cnn wrote:
cnn wrote:
On 1 and 2 taking an exact strategy,on 3 i am not so sure,those WTK directors have their own way of thinking.

They have pleasantly surprised me.


The Director's had little option.....even after giving an Interim Dividend of Ksh 50, they still have over Ksh 400 per share as cash reserves. If the end of year returns an EPS of Ksh 130 - 140 as i estimate it should, then a second dividend of Ksh 20 could be in the horizon.

This is one share that i will not sell even at Ksh 500 (Net Asset Value is Ksh 549.50).

Happy Hunting
sparkly
#20 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2012 7:36:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,285
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@Stocksmaster lend me your crystal ball for one month...
Life is short. Live passionately.
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